[Podcast] Value & Exotic Bets

Value and exotic punter Brenton Chelin combed through Europe’s leagues looking for the best value and opportunities for betting just for you. He covers Bundesliga, Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, Ligue 1 and more.

The Rundown

Goalscorers

Mo Salah has 8 in 6 v Watford | 1.83 AGS | 3.80 FGS

Riyad Mahrez has 7 Man City goals in 5 games v Burnley | Hatrick in this fixture last year | 2.15 AGS | 5.00 FGS

Arnaut Danjuma Villarreal v Osasuna | Has the best non-pen xG per 90 this season in Europe’s Top 5 leagues | 4 league goals & 1 in CL | 2.40 FGS | 4.50 FGS

Dimitri Payet | 3 goals v Lorient | 5 in 5 this season | 2.30 AGS | 4.50 FGS

Andrej Kramaric | 5 in 8 Hoffenheim v Koln | Only 1 goal but xG of 3.1 | Coming off his best season | Scored against Slovakia on Monday | 

Wout Weghorst | Wolfsburg v Union Berlin | 3 in 7 this season but xG of 4.8 |

Value Bets

Fulham v QPR | Championship | Sat 1pm

  • Fulham have scored 5 goals in first 10 mins this season (best in Champ)
  • QPR have best second half record in Champ
  • 7 matches in a row with both teams to score – YES @ 1.71
  • 9 matches in a row with goal scored in the first half
  • Live in-play?
  • Fulham lost 4-1 at Coventry last time out after leading 1-0
  • QPR to win from behind v Fulham (17.00)

Man City v Burnley | EPL | Sat 4pm

  • Man City have won each of the last four meetings at The Etihad 5-0 | Can they go for 5 in 5? City to win 5-0 @ 12.00 |
  • Also a multi bet correct score | Man City 4-0, 5-0, 6-0 @ 4.25
  • City have yet to concede at home in the league this season | Home win to nil @ 1.71
  • Handicap bet the way to go | City -3 @ 3.80 or City -4 @ 9.50
  • Can also get City to score over 5.5 goals @ 16.00

Houston Dynamo v Seattle Sounders | MLS | Sun 02:30

  • Seattle top of the Western Conference play Houston, second bottom
  • Seattle are comfortably the best travelling team in the conference (won 9 of 13 on the road)
  • Houston aren’t bad at home (lost only 3 times this season)
  • Seattle dominate H2H, winning 8 of the last 9 matches. 
  • Worth a stab at the away win @ 18/10

BTTS & Match Winner | 7-Fold @ 2835.00

Young Boys v Luzern | Sat 18:00

Lazio v Inter | Sat 18:00

Waregem v Antwerp | Sat 18:30

PSV v Zwolle | Sat 21:00

New England Revolution v Chicago Fire | Sun 01:00

Sonderjyske v Copenhagen | Sun 18:00

Villarreal v Osasuna | Sun 18:30

Best Bets

Sonderjyske v Copenhagen | Away win @ 1.46

  • Going back to the well with Copenhagen
  • 2nd plays 11th
  • Won 16 of the last 18 meetings v Sonderjyske & 7 of 9 away from home
  • Many of those matches have seen BTTS which is why they’re included in the big multi
  • Copenhagen have also won every away league game this season, scoring 16 goals in 5 matches

Villarreal v Osasuna | BTTS @ 2.00

  • 8 matches in a row with over 2.5 goals
  • 7 matches in a row with both teams to score & 9/10
  • Villarreal have conceded only once this season at home and only 3 goals in seven matches
  • However, Osasuna have seen 22 goals in 8 matches. 
  • Think the bookies might’ve got this one wrong

Rayo Vallecano v Elche | Sun 14:00 | Home win @ 1.76

  • Rayo have won all three home games this season, scoring 10 and conceding 1
  • Rayo ranked 32nd in Points/Game but 7th in my performance chart
  • Radamel Falcao has grabbed 3 goals already since his free transfer from Galatasaray

Sunday best bet treble @ 5.34

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Author: editor

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